Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the date on which the New York City Board of Elections officially announces the winner of the 2025 Democratic mayoral primary. The announcement date will be determined based on official communications from the Board of Elections, accessible at NYC Board of Elections.
Background
The 2025 New York City Democratic mayoral primary is scheduled for June 24, 2025. (vote.nyc) New York City utilizes a ranked-choice voting system, allowing voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate secures more than 50% of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and votes are redistributed based on subsequent preferences. This process continues until a candidate achieves a majority. (apnews.com)
Considerations
Due to the ranked-choice voting system and the inclusion of mail-in ballots, the final tabulation and certification of results may extend beyond the initial election date. Official ranked-choice voting analysis is set to commence on July 1, 2025, with final certification expected by July 15, 2025. (apnews.com) Therefore, the official announcement of the primary winner may not occur immediately after the election and could be delayed until mid-July.
Update 2025-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that either of the following events will be sufficient for resolution:
The date the election results are officially certified.
The date the Board of Elections posts a communication with a clear winner, which may occur before certification.
1,000@Cogsdoc https://enr.boenyc.gov/rcv/026916_1.html The BOE communication cited by the NYT. It says unofficial, but does have a clear winner.
@JBSIyg2 The resolution criteria are incredibly vague, and I think there's an argument to be made that this entire market should be N/A'd.
@HenryRodgers I see your point. The communication linked above clearly satisfies the "they post something with a clear winner" condition. One might argue that that specification of the resolution criterion came too late. I'll gladly take the mana, but won't be upset if it's N/A.
@JBSIyg2 The page you listed isn't really a communication though, it's a preliminary vote tabulation page that the Board is very persistent about calling "unofficial". My interpretation of the resolution criteria clarification from a few days ago was if the BOE made some sort of statement/social media post saying Mamdani won, that would qualify. Nowhere on that page does it say Mamdani is the winner, it simply says he is leading in the votes counted so far. Interpretations of his victory have exclusively come from outside news networks.
I would also make mana from this resolving to July 1st though, so I'm not going argue it any further. I think this should just be taken as a lesson that you need a base level of familiarity with a subject to make a market about it (i.e. the BOE has never announced a winner ever, it's not something they do!).
@IsaacLiu It's not clear to me that the BOE ever made a formal announcement of the winner at any point before certification in the 2021 primary. Does this just resolve based on when the election is certified, or is there something else specific you're looking for to resolve based upon?
@HenryRodgers certified is good. If they post something with a clear winner that could also be good.
I think it's fair for me to also include announcements on X as official communications but anyone, please state if you object