Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026? | Manifold

Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?

60

1kṀ25k

Jan 1

49%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The model need not be released

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opened a Ṁ500 NO at 45% order

@Bayesian Limit up at 45% ;)

@BrunoJ i can uh... get a better price if i wait... 😭

opened a Ṁ3,000 YES at 51% order

All it would take is running the IMO model on Frontier Math.

bought Ṁ500 NO

@VinceVatter FrontierMath is orders of magnitude harder than IMO.

@traders 116 days until 2026! is a breakthrough expected over the next 4 months? Given the size of the jump from GPT-4 to GPT-5, I'm not sure why this is at 55%. I'm going to keep buying a little bit more NO every day.

boughtṀ250NO

@BrunoJ Limit up at 50%

@Bayesian I'm a little bit overexposed on this one 😅

filled a Ṁ1,250 YES at 99.0% order

o3-mini got 32% https://openai.com/index/openai-o3-mini/

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