Definition of “Send”
To count as YES, either of the following must occur:
Federal Deployment
Trump, as Commander-in-Chief, orders federalized National Guard troops (Title 10, Insurrection Act, or similar authority) into San Francisco.
This includes instances where troops physically enter and operate in San Francisco at Trump’s direction, regardless of state or city consent.
State Deployment Ordered by Trump
The California National Guard is deployed into San Francisco at Trump’s explicit direction or order, even if technically under state control (Title 32 or state active duty).
Must be credibly reported that the deployment was initiated due to a Trump directive or request, not solely at the discretion of California’s governor.
Exclusions (Not YES)
Mere threat or announcement by Trump without actual troop movement.
Purely local/state action (e.g., Governor Newsom deploys Guard independently without Trump’s directive).
Other federal forces (e.g., DHS, FBI, Border Patrol, federal marshals, contractors). Only National Guard counts.
Troops stationed elsewhere in California unless they physically enter San Francisco city limits.
Resolution Criteria
Must be confirmed by two credible media outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, SF Chronicle, NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc.).
Market resolves YES if such deployment is credibly reported on or before 11:59 PM PT, December 31, 2025.
Otherwise resolves NO.
1,000