Which Australian political party will become the dominant party after the next House election (as of Feb 2024)?
18
930Ṁ4275
Sep 28
51%
Australian Labor Party
48%
Liberal Party
1.5%
Australian Greens
1.1%
National Party
1%
Centre Alliance
1%
Katter's Australian Party
1%
United Australia Party
1%
One Nation
1%
David Pocock Party
1%
Jacqui Lambie Network

Disclaimer: I am not Australian and have no investment/incentive. I'm doing this for an acquaintance who is interested to know. Please correct me about anything regarding how I set up this poll. The acquaintance requested that I count the Liberal Party and National Party separately. If both end up doing well or so, I guess it can be totaled or averaged (whichever is more correct).

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@JohnHankey sorry to trouble you, but there's something else you may want to clarify here...

While the Liberal and National parties are separate entities in most of the country, the two have merged in Queensland and the Northern Territory to create the LNP and CLP respectively.

Results from the 2022 election looked like this:

In federal parliament, however, there is a Liberal party room and a National party room. LNP MPs do not have their own party room, they sit in one or the other.

I see you've clarified that "dominant" means having the most seats, but could you clarify what counts as a Liberal seat? I assume that if an LNP or CLP candidate wins a seat and sits in the National party room, that won't be counted as a Liberal seat. What about an LNP MP who sits in the Liberal party room? Thanks

"Dominant" = most seats in the house of representatives @JohnHankey?

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