Please submit people who are notable for having opinions on Twitter, and might conceivably be the kind of person who would use Manifold.
If they start using Manifold and get into Masters by 2025, their name resolves yes.
If they don't join or don't get to at least Gold(to show they are active), their name resolves N/A.
If they join and get to Gold but not to Masters, their name resolves no. You can also submit people already on Manifold who haven't made it into Masters, like Eliezer.
I will also N/A any names that I think are incredibly unlikely to become active on Manifold, like Elon.
If Leagues is restructered, they need to get into whatever league I judge to be most equivalent to making it into Masters in December 2023.
As far as I know, only @ZviMowshowitz has done this successfully. Who else from Twitter would do well at Manifold?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ320 | |
| 2 | Ṁ122 | |
| 3 | Ṁ50 | |
| 4 | Ṁ29 | |
| 5 | Ṁ17 |
I'm doubtful that @EliezerYudkowsky is actually the public figure Eliezer Yudkowsky The actual Eliezer Yudkowsky doesn't sound likely to hang around small online outposts under their real name. Plue the Manifold user asked ma a whompingly dumb question in my Sam Altman market
Eliezer seems like a safe bet, given the size of his portfolio and the fact he is currently at diamond statistically even if he only goes on manifold a couple times a month he might get to masters at some point
@DylanSlagh For the record I am very doubtful about @EliezerYudkowsky but I'm confident @Mira is not Mira Mursti.