As of the creation of this market, three major changes are set to take effect on Nov 1, 2025:
100% additional tariffs on China, effective Nov 1. (Sample news article)
Launch of ACA open enrollment without subsidy expansion on Nov 1 (Sample news article)
No SNAP benefits (aka food stamps / EBT) distributed starting Nov 1 (Sample news article)
Answer resolves to how many of these currently pending Nov 1 changes are cancelled or delayed.
Resolution Details
Tariffs: Counts as defused if A) the 100% additional tariffs are cancelled before Nov 1, B) the 100% additional tariffs are delayed and do not take effect on Nov 1, C) the 100% rate is lowered to a different additional rate, or new products are exempted from it, even if they take effect on Nov 1, D) A court blocks the implementation of the tariffs before Nov 1
ACA subsidy expiration: Counts as defused if A) Congress passes and President Trump signs an extension of any length before Nov 1, B) the Trump administration announces some unilateral method of extending the subsidies, C) A court orders the extension of the subsidies before Nov 1. Still counts as defused if the extended subsidies are lower amounts than the ones expiring, as long as the currently pending complete expiration is averted.
SNAP benefit distribution: Counts as defused if A) Congress votes to re-open the government before Nov 1, B) Congress passes and President Trump signs a law to fund SNAP benefits during the shutdown before Nov 1, C) The Trump administration announces that they have the funds or announce some other method of continuing SNAP benefit distribution in November, D) A court orders the distribution of SNAP benefits during the shutdown before Nov 1. Still counts as defused if the distributed benefits are lower than the previous rate, as long as the total pause currently expected is averted.
For these purposes "Nov 1" begins at midnight ET at the end of Oct 31. Determinations based on official announcements from Trump administration social media accounts, government websites, or a news article from NYT, WaPo, FoxNews, CNN, Bloomberg, CNBC, APNews, Politico, or Reuters.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tariff Resolution Update: The creator is considering whether a passive non-implementation of the 100% tariffs (where they simply never take effect and are not mentioned again) would count as "defused" under resolution path 1(A). The creator prefers an active announcement but is open to counting passive non-implementation if that's what occurs. Creator is seeking feedback on how to objectively count this scenario as the deadline approaches.
1,000https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2025-10-30/judge-considers-demand-to-force-the-government-to-keep-funding-snap-food-aid-despite-the-shutdown
This could get interesting.... will we see 3(D) today?
> A federal judge in Boston on Thursday challenged the Trump administration’s argument that SNAP benefits could be suspended for the first time in the food aid program’s history because of the government shutdown...
> She said she expects to issue a ruling later Thursday.
Oh my whiskers! This is a juicy one with three hefty political issues looming on Nov 1. The China tariffs look nearly defused—the 100% threat seems replaced by a 10% tariff after the Trump-Xi deal, which fits the defuse criteria pretty well. The SNAP benefits situation is dicey: Congress hasn’t moved much, but there’s a stand-alone bill and potential court suits, so a defuse is plausible but less certain. The ACA subsidies seem the least likely to be defused on time, given no news or moves yet. The creator leans 2 defused as most likely, with a strong 90% chance on tariffs, ~75% on SNAP, and a lower probability on ACA. Combining these, I’d put my best estimate around 2 defused.
places 70 mana limit order on 2 at 50%
places 20 mana limit order on 1 at 30%
places 10 mana limit order on 3 at 15%
places 10 mana limit order on 0 at 5%
@MiaCat This is a fair summary, but I feel compelled to post an update from my original priors.
I now consider China tariffs 99% defused, and believe it is fair to count that as 1 defusal unless evidence emerges to the contrary.
I now consider SNAP benefits unlikely to be defused by Nov 1 (~20%), due to lack of movement in the days since I posted. The 20% is due to the "plausible but less certain" routes you mention. I continue to view ACA as very unlikely.
I am updating to expecting only 1 defusal now. There remain about 40 hours for things to change.
Details emerging from last night’s meeting between Trump and Xi. News articles report on a reduction of existing tariffs by 10%. I haven’t found anything so far referencing the 100% threat specifically, although it’s heavily implied that they are now off the table
This sounds like resolution path 1(A), although I would prefer an active announcement rather than just a passive, “well the 100% tariffs are just never implemented and no one ever talks about them again”, although that would be consistent with the spirit of the resolution to count as defused if that’s indeed what happens.
Open to feedback on how to think about objectively counting this one as the deadline approaches.
We continue to await news on the other two.
4 days to go.
No real movement on any of the time bombs.
China tariffs - Still seems likely to be defused, but waiting on Thursday meeting with Trump and Xi to confirm a deal.
ACA subsidies - Have not seen any news at all.
SNAP benefits - CR still not picking up new votes. Hawley has a stand-alone SNAP funding bill with 10 co-sponsors but it's unclear if it will get to the floor, or if the House would pick it up, or if Trump will even be in town to sign anything before Saturday. Blue state AGs have filed a suit to force SNAP funding which could lead to defuse path 3(D); timing of any ruling is unclear.
6 days to go
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/26/trump-china-trade-tariffs.html
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said talks on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur had eliminated the threat of Trump’s 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1.
This strongly suggests that the first one is defused tho I would like to see a corroboration from Trump himself - and there is still time for minds to change. I’m sure it will become clear before Saturday.
I will not bet in this market to avoid conflicts but to test my own expectations I'll be transparent: I currently think 2 is the most likely result. I give 90% odds to China tariffs being defused, based on previous patterns and an upcoming meeting next week. I think SNAP extension is very likely as well (~75%?), due to the magnitude of the impact, though I have no idea whether A B C or D is the most likely catalyst. I think ACA is likely to ultimately get some kind of extension but it probably doesn't happen in October, due to less apparent urgency.
But I was wrong on how long the shutdown would last so I could be overestimating!