Without extentsion, the increased CTC and its expanded refundability will revert to lower levels. This will resolve to yes if legislative action is taken such that the CTC will not fall in 2026.
Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Threshold: $2,000
Yes: If the CTC is extended at $2,000 or more.
No: If the CTC is smaller than $2,000.
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@polymathematic Do you have a good quick summary from an authoritative source you can link? It's not mentioned on the Wikipedia page. Providing your friendly local mod team with good sources makes this sort of thing go faster; I'll eventually go research it myself but you clearly already have some sources you could share!
@EvanDaniel of course! Here’s one: https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/obbba-here-and-states-are-making-some-big-choices
@MaxGhenis added this sentence, is that clear? This will resolve to yes if legislative action is taken such that the CTC will not fall in 2026.
@Joshua__Hone Thanks that's clearer but do you specifically mean the $2,000 maximum? What if they make a smaller portion refundable, or require parents to have SSNs (they don't currently)?
@MaxGhenis extended at current rates or expanded resolves to yes, smaller than the status quo (1k) would resolve to no, there are plenty of other reforms possible that I'd consider immaterial to the question
@MaxGhenis Not sure how I can be more clear: if it is extended at 2k or more, the question resolves to yes. If it falls as scheduled (because Congress doesn't intervene), the question resolves to no.
@Joshua__Hone What if it's revised to fall between $1,000 and $2,000? I would suggest picking a single threshold.
@MaxGhenis The threshold is the status quo -- $2,000 -- as implied by the question extending the present, it not falling in the future, and clarity that anything smaller than the status quo would resolve to no