A week after the 2025 NYC mayor election, I will put out a poll titled “Did Mamdani appease centrists? | Would it have helped or hurt his campaign?” with four options.
The market will resolve to the option that receives the highest number of votes in the poll.
“Will Mamdani flirt with centrism” is an interesting question to me because it would be difficult to convincingly reconcile with his past views and statements.
(I won’t bet in this market. Trading closes a week after the election, to allow for swings and hindsight opinions. You are betting on what you think the average Manifold user’s opinion will be, not your personal belief. If you have strong feelings on the topic, the poll itself will be the place to express them. For example, I think Mamdani shouldn’t turn centrist, but I don’t know if Manifold would agree.)
I may be persuaded to add options to this poll depending on interest.
1,000To get the juices flowing, here’s one thread by a leftist on Bluesky talking about this topic:
https://bsky.app/profile/taliajane.bsky.social/post/3m3lk36iggs2b
(As market creator I don’t have a stake in this market and I’m curious about the outcome but I don’t have strong opinions on how it should resolve, just posting informationally)