Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by January 20, 2029, Donald Trump assumes the office of President of the United States for a third term. Verification will be based on official records from the U.S. government or reputable news organizations.

Background

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, limits individuals to being elected to the presidency no more than twice. (britannica.com) Donald Trump served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021 and began his second, non-consecutive term as the 47th president in January 2025. (en.wikipedia.org)

In March 2025, Trump stated he was "not joking" about seeking a third term and mentioned "there are methods" to achieve this, though he did not provide specifics. (reuters.com) Some of his allies, including Steve Bannon, have discussed exploring options to enable a third term. (reuters.com)

Considerations

Amending the Constitution to allow a third term would require a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate, followed by ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures—a process that is both time-consuming and politically challenging. (britannica.com)

Some legal scholars have debated whether a two-term president could serve as vice president and then ascend to the presidency, but the 12th Amendment states that "no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice President," suggesting this route is also constitutionally barred. (en.wikipedia.org)

Given these constitutional constraints and the lack of precedent, any attempt by Trump to secure a third term would face significant legal and political obstacles.