Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

1kṀ3405

2028

18%

chance

ALL

Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html

He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.

This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:

Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak

The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

When the next house price crash is likely to hit, according to expert

As mortgage rates rocket to a two-decade high and buyers face the least affordable market in recent memory, alarm bells have been ringing over an imminent house price crash.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Hard to say for sure if a full crash is coming in 2026, but trends point more toward a correction than a collapse. Rising rates and affordability issues will play a big role. I usually check what the top real estate agents in San Diego https://sandiegorealtorslist.com/ are saying, since that market reacts fast to shifts. Their insights often give a good idea of what’s coming nationwide.

bought Ṁ50 NO

Bet NO purely on intuition and the non-availability of news about this. May be totally wrong.

I set up some liquidity if this gets to 33% but I need meat on the bone to go for a resolution as far out as 2026-2027

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