I think I would have preferred if resolution was not by vote. A single judge can be more consistent than a crowd that has a mana interest in the outcome.

@LarsOsborne I'll say it's more like guidance which will influence whether or not I close the market early or let it play out until close. I have to keep to the stipulation of 2025-03-20 which said there would be a poll and that would help determine resolution.

I cannot see the comments on the original market now that it is unlisted, even if I am accessing the page. They're all gone, even comments I freshly made. This is probably something wrong on Manifold's end?

I made a bug report.

@Quroe I noted that there appeared to be something wrong by editing the description and tagging mods. All traders should be able to see that there is a technical issue.

Discretion, I hold a decent amount of YES for First Half 2025.

I mean, he accused the President of the United States, who only got into office because of his unprecented financial and personal support, of being a pedophile. If "The man I put into the most powerful position in the world diddles kids and I've known this for months" doesn't qualify as a breakdown I don't really know what does?

@speck Do you have a source for that quote?

But anyway, I don't think some misguided comment that he regretted afterwards would constitute a "mental breakdown". In my opinion what would count is if he was admitted into a mental institution, was unable to work for a long time, had to step down from the roles in his companies for mental health reasons etc.

Some articles use the words "breakdown" or "meltdown", but refer to the relationship between Musk and Trump and not Musk's personal mental health, which is what the market was about.

@dp9000 Here quotation marks are used to represent paraphrasing. You can read the original tweets here if you'd like: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/musk-appears-delete-posts-claiming-trump-epstein-files/story?id=122609304

(The text if the tweet, for reference: "Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!" Anybody is welcome to try to provide a reading of this tweet by which Musk is not trying to allege that Trump is a pedophile, but I'm quite certain that no such reading exists.)

In any case, I don't think the euphemism you're using here is helpful. Elon Musk claimed that the President he helped elect is a pedophile. If your standard for a 'breakdown' is higher that's fine, but if so, you should try to make that case without downplaying what happened, and I don't think that reducing this to a 'misguided comment' even remotely captures what actually happened.

@Lorelai Can you provide a link to the event you're referencing?

@Quroe I think most people on here remember.

@Lorelai Is this it? https://time.com/7291599/elon-musk-implosion-richest-man/

Are We Witnessing the Implosion of the World’s Richest Man?

"Musk may think he has leverage over Trump, but the reality is he has little. Trump doesn’t need his money."

@Quroe yes