In 2025, what percentage of EAs are non-male?
21
1kṀ296
Dec 31
32%
chance

Resolves to the percentage reported by the most current publicly available community-wide survey by the end of 2025.

In the 2020 survey, 29% of respondents were non-male:

https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/eas2020-demographics

In the 2022 survey, 34% if respondents were non-male:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AJDgnPXqZ48eSCjEQ/ea-survey-2022-demographics

  • Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source: The market will be resolved using the 2024 EA Community survey.

    • Survey Value: The final percentage is set at 31%.

    • Condition: This will apply unless someone raises an objection.

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Unless someone objects, I will resolve this to 31% from the 2024 EA Community survey. This is the survey I originally had in mind, but I wasn't sure that it was going to happen.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/z4Wxd2dnTqDmFZrej/ea-survey-2024-demographics

Can you explain how this resolution works? You ask for a number, but the resolution is YES or NO.

predictedYES

@ErwinRossen Binary questions can be resolved to any percentage between 0 and 1. So if the correct percentage ends up being 10%, then the NO shares will pay out .9 and the YES shares pay out .1

Related:

Every time I see EA in these contexts I have to remind myself that it isn't Enrolled Agents...

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