The UBS Global Wealth Report 2024 states that the UK currently has 3,061,553 USD millionaires. This can be found on page 30 of the report. They predict this figure to drop by 17%, or 519,089 millionaires by 2028.
On a simple per year division basis, that would be a 129,772 drop yearly over 4 years or 103,817 yearly over 5 years (I'm uncertain the exact timings of what the figures are intended to represent).
Keir Starmer said on the day of creating this market that the October budget "Will be painful". This could accelerate the trend. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c0rw9edy00zt
Resolution Criteria
This market will be resolved based on the difference between this figure in this years report, and the 2025 UBS Global Wealth Report. If there are differences in the reports, the best way to calculate the figure will be discussed as much as possible in the comments of the market.
If the figure shows a positive trend, i.e. there was no drop in the year, the market will resolve to zero. Equally, if the figure is above the range, it will resolve to the highest value in the range (450,000).
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they are resolving the market based on a newly available report, ahead of the original 2025 schedule. The resolution value will be 437,553.
This is calculated as the difference between the original starting figure (3,061,553) and the new figure from the latest report (2,624,000).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3,985 | |
| 2 | Ṁ17 | |
| 3 | Ṁ13 |
https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/global-wealth-report.html
Page 21
Figure is 2,624,000. Resolving based on this @traders
@LukeShadwell tbh - I'm really wondering if I've got something wrong here. Please let me know if you can see any errors I've made
@LukeShadwell honestly I felt it seemed very high but I’m not in a position to dig in too far. o4-mini-high thinks it’s plausible due to the pound being weaker against the dollar, which makes the drop feel more plausible but also doesn’t really jibe with “millionaires leaving” because people who stayed but are suddenly worth under a million haven’t left. So I think maybe your headline question doesn’t really match what the resolution criteria actually mean. Unsatisfying if that’s the case but not the wrong resolution.
@Noit It is unsatisfying, I agree. I think the exchange rate affecting it is why this hasn't received much media coverage. This hasn't been my best question overall.
In terms of the resolution criteria:
"This market will be resolved based on the difference between this figure in this years report, and the 2025 UBS Global Wealth Report."
This, as far as I can think, is the correct resolution, but in future I will try to make markets clearer. (also i know it looks bad that i bought just before resolving but tbh, this report has been out for three days and anyone could've seen it and done the same)
Doing some early research before the 2025 UBS Global Wealth report comes out;
South Africa based research firm says 'more than 10,000' (which seems a bit low comparatively?):
https://www.brusselstimes.com/1400253/more-than-10000-millionaires-left-the-uk-in-2024
The 2023 Global Wealth Report (Direct File Download) shows 2.5M millionaires, the 2024 report shows 3M. Unless I'm getting this completely wrong, that's an increase of 500k. The 2023 report actually predicts an 88% increase in millionaires by 2027. Is it possible we've completely overshot this market? (I haven't bet on it, to be clear, just want to let everyone know) @traders
@TheAllMemeingEye i think the report is from data as of the start of the year, but isn't released until summer. it is a single annual release, so no monthly data.
@TheAllMemeingEye it may be best that I adjust the end date to the end of 2024 and then resolve in September. Any opinions on this?
@LukeShadwell You mean close date? I don't see a problem leaving it open into 2025 if people want to keep predicting after Jan 1 and before the report is released (also, it's mostly not people "leaving" that impacts the number; rather, it's largely determined by currency exchange rates vs the dollar and stock market performance, applied over the preexisting wealth distribution). Right now, FTSE is up 7% YTD and the Sterling is roughly flat vs dollar, so I'd expect the number of millionaires to increase modestly in the report.
the report is from data as of the start of the year, but isn't released until summer
it's mostly not people "leaving" that impacts the number; rather, it's largely determined by currency exchange rates vs the dollar and stock market performance, applied over the preexisting wealth distribution
Maybe "How many millionaires the UK lose between Jan 2024 and Jan 2025 according to the UBS Global Wealth Report?" would be the most accurate title, with the close date remaining in September?