Inspired by @MartinKrag's prediction in his post: https://martinkrag.substack.com/p/vc-market-3-takeaways-from-23-and
According to dealroom, there were ~35k Pre/Seed deals done in 2023. This market will resolve "yes" if there is conclusive and clear evidence that 2024 had more deals than this, as determined a few days into 2025 (i.e. at a similar time into the year as right now, to account for similar levels of lagging reporting).
I will attempt to find the equivalent of this report for 2024. If I cannot find the same report, I will resort to a different source for the same metric and use the same source for 2023 to compare against and resolve the market based on that
https://dealroom.co/uploaded/2023/12/Global-end-of-2023-Venture-Unwrapped-Dealroom.pdf?x75722
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ189 | |
| 2 | Ṁ175 | |
| 3 | Ṁ54 | |
| 4 | Ṁ33 | |
| 5 | Ṁ31 |
I resolve this to "No" based on that the equivalent report for 2024 says that there ere 24k VC rounds in total logged for 2024 across all stages which means that there must have been less than 35k pre/seed deals done. https://dealroom.co/uploaded/2025/01/Dealroom-Global-Q4-2024-wrapped-report.pdf?x39422
It's not a satisfying resolution as there is no like-for-like number but given I had vested interest in the answer being "yes" here, I admit that I am most likely wrong.