Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released. I will not bet in this market. Resolves based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9).
For reference, the Trump shooter would have been "indiscernible."
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Political lean will be judged on the US political spectrum.
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Transgender identity is not a political lean and is not necessarily sufficient on its own to determine resolution.
Pro-Palestinian activism alone is not inherently sufficient to determine political lean, but could have the potential to.
Additional evidence beyond these attributes will be required to resolve.
Update 2025-09-11 (PST) : If a culprit is arrested, but there's widespread likelihood that they're not the real perpetrator, this will only resolve if I'm 90% sure they got the right guy, and may resolve "no culprit caught" otherwise.
If their political lean is too wrapped up in, say, state-sponsorship, being a spy or secret agent, some baffling edge case like that, this will probably resolve "indiscernible."
1,000My plan with this market is to keep it open until the close date, but I reserve the right to resolve this market if something I deem blatantly obvious enough to warrant a resolution comes out, such as leaked neo-nazi chat logs or a bafflingly nonpartisan luigi-style manifesto (This feels unlikely, but not impossible).
I will give this market at least a week for an understanding of the shooter (or at least a narrative surrounding the understanding of the shooter) to coalesce. It is extremely unlikely this market will resolve before next Friday.
@VNetChrome I dont think its unreasonable to ask for solid proof of his political positions. I just dont think there has been solid evidence published yet. If he was left-wing, those chat logs will be published very quickly, as it is in the intrest of the current goverment to prove it.
@VNetChrome just because i think this post is silly: if these were true, plus currently available information, it would not be sufficient for a resolution imo
I feel like conclusively deciding this person's political ideology in the face of him having no official political affiliation nor recent votes in elections will be very hard. Republicans call people left wing all the time over almost nothing, even if those people still vote republican. People also are strongly encouraged to disassociate themselves with a killer and will naturally try to suggest they belong in the other camp. Because of this, I don't think it would be right to resolve this as left based on what republicans say his ideology is or right based on what democrats say his ideology is. It seems only fair to resolve as indiscernible unless we find evidence in his own words (social media, interviews, etc).
@PatrickAupperle It will be trivial to prove his politics based on his online footprint, which seems to be significant as he spent a lot of time online. If he was indeed far-left/left-wing those chats will be published very soon.
@Xizted Not everyone online has a clear ideology necessarily, but if he does, then that is reasonable. I just don't want this resolved based on some governor or family member calling him left wing
@PatrickAupperle I agree that we should not take anyones word for his politics, but I do believe there will be chat logs which will reveal his politics. It does sound he was politically active, so I find it unlikely he never discussed his political positions online.
@PatrickAupperle The highly respected UK Guardian, based on first-hand interview with someone who knows the suspect well, described him as leftist. He's leftist.
@GuyCohen The bullet inscriptions make it clear enough. Coupled with the interviews, it’s a no-brainer. If you don’t mind me asking, what generation are you?
@reactor I do think it is very likely he was left-wing, but I do not think the evidence you mention is credible enough. It will be trivial to prove his political positions from his online communications, and if he was indeed far-left, those will be shared by the FBI very shortly.
@reactor The bullet inscriptions are just a bunch of edgy meme lord stuff and the interviews have been retracted.
@reactor As per previously stated in this market, the casings are not enough on their own to determine his lean, in my opinion. Bet accordingly
@Chumchulum "Editor’s note: This article was updated on 12 September 2025 to remove quotes after the verified source who attended high school with Tyler Robinson said after publication that they could not accurately remember details of their relationship."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/12/suspect-charlie-kirk-shooting
@reactor To add more on the casings, it is entirely possible his motive was to make the governor of Utah say "If you read this, you are gay LMAO" on live television/stream. I just dont think those carry any weight.
@GuyCohen Id trust an early interview in this case more than one where interviewee has second thought
@BrunoClawfeld If you mean the guardian article, I posted proof that it was retracted earlier in the thread
@BrunoClawfeld It is very likely, and will be trivial to prove using his chat logs, but neither the Guardian interview or the statement from Cox are solid proof of his politics. I believe there will be chatlogs proving he is leftist very soon, as he was clearly politically active and FBI is clearly under pressure to prove he was not right-wing.