Will the assasination attempt at Slovakian PM Fico be used to crack down on opposition/press by May 2025?
26
1kṀ3198
resolved May 14
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if non-trivial new legislation will be passed in Slovakia that

a) limits the freedom of press and/or political opposition (examples include restrictions on financing, penalties for "incorrect reporting", significant changes in the publicly-owned channels etc.). The legislation needs to cause international freedom-monitoring organizations to make statements against the legislation

b) the assasination attempt at Fico is cited by the politicians proposing the legislation as (one of) the reason this legislation is necessary. It must be cited repeatedly among the reasons - a single mention in a parliament debate won't count.

The legislation must be passed into law on May 1st 2025 the latest.

Somewhat weak criteria, I will not bet.

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@traders This looks to me like a borderline resolution. I weakly tend to resolve NO but I'll be happy to hear arguments to the contrary in the following week (up to May 12th).

Specifically, there was a law directly linked to the assasination attempt and justified as a response to the attempt ("lex assasination", link in Slovak: https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lex_atent%C3%A1t). It is not very strong and AFAIK didn't result in any sort of strong condemnation from international organizations at the time of its passing (my comment at the time: https://manifold.markets/MartinModrak/will-the-assasination-attempt-at-sl#509zmzu26kp). I.e. it satisfies part b) of the resolution, but not clearly part a)

There were other later changes that definitely satisfied part a), (notably changes to the state broadcaster) but that were not AFAIK explicitly justified as linked to the assasination attempt.

The resolution is borderline due to the statement by UN OHCR from March 2025 (linked by @JussiVilleHeiskanen, https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/03/experts-alarmed-deterioration-fundamental-freedoms-and-civic-space-slovak) which calls attention to the changes as a whole but also to "lex assasination" specifically. It could therefore be treated as making "Lex assasination" also satisfy part a) of the criteria. On the other hand, it seems to be primarily referring to newer developments. I originally misread it as just reporting on those later changes not directly justified by the attempt, resulting in somewhat dismissive answers in the comments which is an extra reason to resolve NO.

This is an organization specifically decrying a passed law called "lex assassination" https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/03/experts-alarmed-deterioration-fundamental-freedoms-and-civic-space-slovak

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I agree that multiple laws satisfying the criterion a) have been proposed (and AFAIK some passed). The remaining criterion for resolution is b) that the politicians proposing the law cite the assasination attempt as a justification. I haven't done a thorough review of the discussion yet (will definitely do on close at the latest), but I haven't seen this argument made by the politicians that much...

@AIBear the description says international freedom monitoring organizations. The link I provided is precisely that

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yes, I agree, that's precisely part a) of the resolution criteria.

I should note that "significant changes in the publicly-owned channels" are underway (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/slovakian-parliament-approves-plan-to-revamp-rtvs/ar-BB1oCkdT), although the assasination attempt seems to not be directly cited among the reasons for this change.

YES, because you should never waste a good crisis.

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