Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
56
1kṀ86682100
44%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
An attempted AI takeover
An AI system malfunctions
A single disaster or related ones, not just "every AI disaster over 50 years"
1T adjusted to inflation
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@PipFoweraker I'd be more worried about Manifold. Presumably we can get an admin resolution if it matter and Manifold exists.
@EvanDaniel True - I was thinking more of the psychological satisfaction of being proved right while still alive
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?
32% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2040?
8% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2040?
25% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2040?
16% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2040?
29% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2040?
18% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2040?
67% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000,000 (1bn) people before 2029?
5% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?
80% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2029?
12% chance