A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
5
130Ṁ2032999
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Copied over from Elicit
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2030?
60% chance
Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?
56% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
64% chance
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
24% chance
Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
78% chance
Conditional on AGI taking over the world, what will it do to the humans?
Will we get AGI before WW3?
74% chance
Will a humanoid AGI be used in a public setting by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
64% chance
Will a misaligned AGI take over the world?
11% chance