Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
12
1kṀ2212999
78%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Copied over from Elicit
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will humans create AGI, either directly or indirectly, within the next 24 months?
2% chance
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
24% chance
What organization will be the first to create AGI?
Will China get AGI first?
41% chance
Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?
Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?
Will a humanoid AGI be used in a public setting by the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will a US Manhattan-like Project for AGI Be Launched In 2025?
15% chance
Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?
67% chance
A full world government will develop before human-level AGI
4% chance