This market resolves YES if Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer the Prime Minister of Israel before a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas. It resolves NO if a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached while Netanyahu is still prime minister.
A permanent ceasefire is defined as a formal agreement between Israel and Hamas that explicitly states an end to hostilities without a specified end date (not a temporary pause). Netanyahu ceasing to be prime minister includes resignation, removal from office, electoral defeat, or any other means by which he no longer holds the position.
Resolution will be based on reputable news sources such as Reuters, AP, or official government statements.
Sources:
Update 2025-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is no formal agreement, a permanent ceasefire will be recognized after 3 months without fighting between Israel and Hamas; the war is considered ended at that 3-month mark. This supersedes the prior 6-month threshold.
1,000@PoliticalEconomyPK suppose the situation three months from now is basically the same, with bouts of fighting like today every couple of weeks, and the "second phase" still pending. Would you rule that as a "permanent ceasefire" or not?
Doesn't look very "permanent" to me...
I will consider the ceasefire permanent and war to have ended 6 months after fighting has stopped
Edit. I changed it to 3 months
@PoliticalEconomyPK IMO if both sides declare unequivocally that the ceasefire is permanent, then this should resolve NO unless it falls apart immediately. Waiting one month would be more than enough.
OTOH, there are scenarios where the conflict could be suspended, even for longer than six months, but with the "rights reserved" to continue fighting if, eg, finsl status talks break down. In that case I don't know what the resolution should be
@PoliticalEconomyPK my point isn't to bargain over the wait time - I'm actually a YES holder lol. I'm saying that "will the ceasefire hold" is a different and easier question from "does this arrangement count as 'permanent ceasefire'", and adding wait time doesn't help all that much for the latter.
@AhronMaline im not trying to bargain. The extra time is just to give me a clearer picure so that I can resolve it to the best of my abilities
@PoliticalEconomyPK looks like the scenario I mentioned is playing out - ceasefire with ongoing negotiations, and an implied return to war if (when) they break down... it would be helpful if you could spell out what your criteria are for the resolution
@PoliticalEconomyPK and @AhronMaline what about using the Gaza war - Wikipedia status infobox? As of today "Ceasefire formally in effect since 10 October 2025 under first phase of a peace deal"
As a suggestion to have an external verifiable source to determine the end date. Otherwise we would continue guessing what the market creator's threshold for ceasefire breakdown is.
@MiguelLM it's fundamentally a matter of language, how OP understands the concept of a "permanent ceasefire". Especially with a self-contradictory deal like this one: on one hand it was trumpeted as "the end of the war", but at the same time it promised that Hamas will disarm, clearly implying that the war will continue since they won't do so. I don't really see how Wikidedia sheds more light on the matter.
@AhronMaline for Wikipedia we have:
the infobox used in >26K conflicts that can be used as reference. We can compare how this was used in previous Palestine ceasefires for reference
the talk sections where several editors come to a consensus
For each OP's understanding, we have to guess what they think. We have many markets for ceasefires with OP's with different criteria.
This was just a suggestion. Maybe someone else has better ideas of sources to determine ceasefires end dates. Wikipedia as a neutral secondary source compiling the consolidated consensus of primary sources, seemed like a good option to me, but maybe you have better suggestions.
Arb. This market has the direct opposite signal
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-benjamin-netanyahu-cease-to-be?r=Q2h1bWNodWx1bQ
@Samaritan we will obviously be waiting a while before the resolution so the outcome is completely clear