Loans are assumed late after their due date at 11:59:59pm PST has passed.
Refer to this for the loan ledger: /Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
All market answers are relative to @Tumbles experiences. @Tumbles may choose not to answer any unprovable market answers if he wishes to.
We'll do our best to ensure these get resolved in ways that make the most sense. Expect some potential clerical challenges. Don't expect this market to be taken too seriously.
Add your own! We may N/A them at will. Be ready to accept responsibility of tracking it if you add it. Lack of resolution is not evidence that it hasn't happened yet -- asking for clarifications is encouraged. Markets added that have already achieved their YES state upon entry will resolve (or, if able, be changed to upon discovery) N/A.
Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): * Once the loan ledger for @Tumbles shows 0 loans:
All market answers that have not already met their conditions to resolve YES will resolve NO.
New loans taken by @Tumbles after this point (when the ledger first showed 0 loans) will not count towards this market.
Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Tumbles-related prediction markets', the creator has proposed the following resolution logic:
The count of 24 markets is tied to a specific overdue loan.
The count starts when a loan becomes overdue.
If that specific loan is paid back, the count for its lateness stops.
A new count would begin if a different loan becomes overdue.
Therefore, for this answer to resolve YES, more than 24 Tumbles-related markets must be created while a specific loan remains continuously overdue.
Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the general logic for all answers in this market:
Resolution is based on individual, specific loans, not a general "state of default."
A lateness count begins when a specific loan becomes overdue.
The count for that loan stops permanently once it is paid back.
A new, separate count would begin if a different loan becomes overdue. Lateness is not cumulative across different loans.
Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (✅ Market Creator approved AI summary of creator comment): For the answer corresponding to days of lateness:
This answer will resolve YES if the June 8th loans remain overdue at the start of July 3rd. The creator specifies this is the point at which the condition of being "more than 24 days late" is met.
1,000
@jcb I would certainly say it was created, but I think we should also ask if that is what this market is counting in the first place, now that I think about it. What even is a time unit of a "Tumbles-related prediction market"? @KJW_01294, was this the intent? If no response is given in the next 7 days, I will N/A it for ambiguity.
@Quroe aw sorry didn’t see this, my goal would have been to resolve YES if more than 24 prediction markets mentioning Tumbles are created after Tumbles is in default. So it’s a unit of time, but is variable
@KJW_01294 Ah, okay! If you want to ping mods in a request to unresolve it, we can do that. (I consent to it reopening.) Or we can leave it N/A'd; your choice.
I would ask that I get some assistance tracking this if we do bring it back online because this one requires a lot of effort to track. I imagine that every single unpaid debt spawns it's own timeline of Tumbles markets to track. It's not just that we're looking for when 24 markets are made and asking if there is still any unpaid debt.
For example, if 24 Tumbles markets were made since this market's creation, but the Tumbles debt ledger has been repaid such that the oldest debt is only 1 day overdue, and only 1 Tumbles market has been made in that 1 day, it would not resolve YES, as I understand it.
How would you like to proceed?
@121 Correct. When the ledger reaches 0 loans, the remainder of market answers will resolve NO after they are confirmed to be correct to the best of our abilities.
If Tumbles takes on new loans after a moment in time where no loans remain on the books, those don't count.
@KJW_01294 Does this very page count as the 1st? Does each new added market answer on this market count?
@jcb Feel free to ping me when this event triggers. I don't stay on top of this metric on my own accord.
@jcb I suppose anybody can call it out and say it's ready to resolve. Collective responsibility, and all that. Thanks for the clarification, too.
@jcb Alright! The count is at 1 for any loans that are past due as of today, up to the ones due on June 9th. It will not count for loans that are not yet due.
Edit: correction made