Following the resignation of François Bayrou on 8 September 2025, Sébastien Lecornu has been appointed as the new Prime Minister. This market predicts whether the left-wing coalition will secure a majority in the confidence vote at the French National Assembly.
For this vote, the left-wing coalition includes:
La France Insoumise (LFI)
Socialist Party (PS)
Europe Ecology – The Greens (EELV)
The right-wing / center-right coalition, supporting Prime Minister Lecornu, includes:
Renaissance (Macron’s centrist-right allies)
Les Républicains (LR)
National Rally (RN)
Official results from the French National Assembly will determine the outcome. A majority is defined as more than half of votes cast
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution focus: the left-wing coalition's independent clout in the confidence vote.
YES if more than half of votes cast against the confidence vote can be reached by the left-wing coalition (LFI, PS, EELV) together with any center/center-right defectors, without relying on RN votes to cross 50%.
NO if the government wins the vote, or if a >50% "against" majority requires RN votes (i.e., left + any center/center-right defectors do not exceed half of votes cast).
1,000@rayman2000 To be clear, the stakes in this market are not only whether the government will survive the confidence vote, but whether the left-wing coalition, on its own, will have enough strength to block it. The focus is on their independent clout: can they, without relying on the far right (which would constitute an unnatural alliance), prevent and influence the vote for the formation of a right-wing government?
@REDSKY Isn't the answer to that trivially no then? The left-wing parties do not have a majority in parliament. The only way they can reach a majority is with the help of either center-right or far-right parties, which would also resolve no?
@rayman2000 The left could sway the outcome by persuading some center-right deputies, but the key factor remains the initiative and strength of the left-wing coalition itself