Will OpenAI reveal thinking tokens by the end of June 2025?
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Jun 30
23%
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The market will resolve as Yes if thinking tokens are produced by the API or chatgpt in a public release.

Clarification Feb 7 - must be the actual thinking tokens, not some summary/paraphrase thereof.

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filled a Ṁ25 NO at 59% order

Note that this is still not the raw chain of thought - OpenAI's goal here is to be more transparent, but not entirely transparent. This, to me, implies that this should resolve NO unless they walk this back.

@MingCat They are 'beautified' raw tokens, because the raw ones are meaningless to the user sometimes, because of multiple languages usage. I think it should resolve to Yes, or sth like 80% if it remains like that by June.

@ikoukas currently would resolve no.

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Ronan Is this decision based on a hard-and-fast rule that any sort of processing in principle resolves NO, or that your impression of the specific way OpenAI is beautifying them is too extensive to count as "raw tokens"? If it were somehow demonstrated that the current processing is very minor would you resolve YES?

@MingCat howdy . Formatting would be fine, but the tokens should be raw (which would just allow for Mark down rendering, for example).

filled a Ṁ100 YES at 60% order

Sam Altman claims that it will very soon

filled a Ṁ30 NO at 30% order

Makes a big difference seeing them in DeepSeek for sure

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