gpt-5.2-pro gives me 18% on this one: https://imgur.com/a/klc9XRP

@Dulaman Interesting. I think the likelihood is higher due to the fact that he will probably reach trillionaire status by that point. When he donated to Trump last year, his net worth was ~$220bn. If he were to donate the same proportion of his net worth in 2028 as he did in 2024, it would be more than a billion dollars. Even if his net worth remained unchanged from today, it'd be more than $600 million.

There's also the recent reports that he plans on backing republicans for midterms which suggests his prior claim of wanting to do a lot less political spending might not be exactly true. (https://www.axios.com/2025/12/16/elon-musk-donations-midterms-republicans-trump)

@Ryanjsw4 I suspect if he's just thinking in terms of raw money then the political damage that was done to companies like Tesla make it not worthwhile to bankroll politicians in the near future

If he starts hitting the psychedelics again then maybe there's an upside where the narrative takes hold in his mind that he's fighting a solo battle against a great evil global force or something.

Then maybe he'll do a redux in 2028 for Vance.

@Dulaman I don't think it was the donations that ultimately sullied the reputation of Tesla, I think it was DOGE and being center stage. At this point, there's not really any going back. He's identified with the GOP either way, and the DNC is only going to increase wealth redistributive rhetoric using him, the world's richest man, as the villain. In terms of Tesla sales in Europe, he's all in on Robotaxis at this point. I don't think he envisions Tesla vehicle sales being an important part of the business going beyond 2028.

@Ryanjsw4 nah donations to Trump and nazi salute during his inauguration nuked Tesla globally, especially in Europe. Basically ceded market to Chinese EV and lost hundreds of billions of dollars worth of sales over the following 10 years. After that happened then the narrative changed and it was "oh that was the plan all along and EVs don't matter" etc

@Ryanjsw4 political damage for Tesla is now a long-term dynamic. Going to be hard to sell humanoid robots in Europe when the CEO is trying to attack the democratic process. At that point even Chinese machines look less of a risk. But that's for the next decade, not this one.

@Ryanjsw4 In the US he's probably in a pretty good position whoever wins in 2028. Unless he does something really stupid with xAI+twitter. But in practice it takes a lot for the federal state to start going after the wealthy. He's going to survive marginal increases to income/corporate tax 🤣

@Dulaman Yea, I did forget about the salute. It's not going to be hard to sell humanoid robots for the foreseeable future, though. Anyone who can make them will be able to sell them. The demand for humanoids is that large. You also have to account for the rising far right in Europe with the AfD and Reform. Modelling Europe's political environment as a static extrapolation of the present might not make that much sense given the recent polls. I do agree that he is unlikely to be severely attacked even if dems get the presidency, house, and senate, but I'm not sure that changes the calculation all that much for him. He will perceive the championing of regulations and anti-growth rhetoric as a personal affront, even if it doesn't ultimately threaten his entire net worth.

@Ryanjsw4 Think of it this way: Germans aren't going to sit still and let foreigners spread their brand of fascism into their society while continuing to buy their products, be it Russian fascism and Russian gas, or American fascism and American machines. Afd voters weren't the ones buying Teslas and running energy companies. As for growth you're likely to see the left move towards abundance and away from degrowth over the next decade, so that's a dynamic to watch out for. 2028 presidential election is probably going to be a win for a candidate that's pro-jobs + anti-inflation, to counter what voters experienced in 2024-2028.

basically 2020s for the DNC is a question of whether they can speedrun through the woke/degrowth bullshit and into the pro-abundance politics of the 2030s. If they can do that by 2028 then it's a win otherwise it's JD Vance boogalooo.

@Dulaman The truth is that principles don't really matter that much. If you can offer significant labor savings to businesses, they will pressure the governments to allow that product to be bought/sold, as they are subject to competitive pressures.

I am also quite skeptical about the left embracing abundance in that timespan, but I won't say it's impossible. Plus, you can be pro-jobs and anti-inflation in ways that ultimately align with degrowth. Banning automation is technically a pro jobs position.

@Ryanjsw4 Oh for sure, agree with the first point. But what's true for EVs and robotics is that anyone can make them . The one who wins is the one who can make the most of them at scale and undercut the competition, so by default China wins the global market. And then most countries will enter a dynamic where they will have their domestic players compete against the Chinese products. Other foreign players end up much further down the list, particularly if their CEOs are actively calling for the countries/unions where they're tring to sell their products to be dissolved.

And yeah also skeptical about US democrats going all in on abundance for 2028 election, think it's more of a 2032 thing.

@Dulaman I don't really disagree about the competitive dynamics wrt China, but I would complicate the picture a little bit. For one, China being able to undercut the competition is largely thanks to cheap labor. If you produce humanoid robots, the first things you automate are your own factories (and your supply chains) which kinda nullifies China's advantage. I would also suggest that mass production of EVs and robotics are not as easy as you imply. Tesla (really anything that Musk touches) is a manufacturing powerhouse. They move the quickest, iterate the fastest, and vertically integrate essential components. I really doubt European domestic players will be competitive with that. Ultimately I think it will come down to Chinese companies vs Tesla and then everyone else will be a distant 3rd.

@Ryanjsw4 haha we need more manifold questions to add some granular predictions to this

I think China has a better capacity to scale up robotics than anyone else. Cheap labor coordinated by an authoritarian regime with the largest industrial base (by a large margin) in the world is the perfect recipe to get to a billion "humanoid" robots first. It's the shape of the bootstrapping curve that's everything in this scenario. Like how effective are your 3rd generation robots in the manufacturing process to produce the 4th gen robots? What fraction of the labor are they contributing, how much does each unit cost, what's the time to get a 100% return on the investment etc. I think you're likely to get very different industrial stacks in different blocs according to the existing industrial base and labor force. Like Europe will go for high end expensive robots that provide maximum added value to manufacturing, whereas China will go for cheap robots that can be made as fast as possible and then try and win through number of iterations.

@Ryanjsw4 I suspect in the US main game will be trying to get the vertical integration working in the US, with less emphasis on trade, for "security" reasons etc. So you'll get all the advantages of that once it pays off, but super expensive robots at every intermediate step. Main US advantage will be existing compute buildout throughout 2028-2032, so the AI advantage will play into the robotics stack in interesting ways. But problem with AI is that it diffuses very fast so everything depends on staying ahead with the technical edge.

@Ryanjsw4 Europe will just do what it's always done and trade with as many people as possible. So you'll get more of a hybrid industrial stack with all the advantages and disadvantages that brings. Suspect Europe will be ahead of everyone else in attracting foreign investment, so everyone will have their robot plants in Europe competing with each other, which will be interesting to see 😂

@Ryanjsw4 basically robots + AI become a massive chunk of the global economy and then that space gets filled out by many players, as it always does.