Will Elon Musk have a child of given ethnicity?
45
2kแน€5518
2040
53%
Latino
33%
Arab
13%
Black
10%
Native American
5%
Maori
Resolved
YES
Jewish

https://x.com/teortaxesTex/status/1912658611756474523

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Child's Ethnicity Standard:

    • Ethnicity will be evaluated based on how the child's ethnicity is perceived by people and society.

    • The interpretation will be broad, acknowledging that ethnicity is a fuzzy concept.

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Biological Parent Requirement:

    • Only biological children of Elon Musk will be counted in the resolution.

  • Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ethnicity Definition Update:

    • Ethnicity is now determined using the Latino standard.

    • This definition excludes Spain and Portugal.

    • This definition includes Brazil.

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@jim Maori colours are red white and black if any of those are available

bought แน€1,000 YES

Please resolve @SanghyeonSeo

@elf Oh, this looks correct...

@SanghyeonSeo IMO this one should be green, Latino and Arab should switch colors

@evan Done!

Hispanic should be edited because it's a language group. I think you meant Latino.

@Panfilo I don't want to litigate this, but Wikipedia seems to think Hispanic is an ethnic term.

@SanghyeonSeo It's your market, but it could be ambiguous if he has a kid with someone of Spanish versus native South American descent.

@Panfilo Okay, edited to Latino. This means Spain and Portugal are out and Brazil is in.

bought แน€100 NO

Black should be at zero.

Also, are you only counting Elon as a biological father, or would adoption also count?

What percentage is required to count for this? E.g., if Elon has a child with someone who is half-Black, is that enough?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Ethnicity is a fuzzy concept, but the standard would be the child's ethnicity, as generally considered by people and society. I think I will tend to interpret it broadly for this market.

@SanghyeonSeo perhaps mother ethnicity is a better standard? Many of the options above (like Arab and Latino) are cultural markers, so we can't really say if a baby is a member. Like would Steve Jobs resolve as Arab? I don't think he generally was considered as such.

As another test, would we count Elon today as having (part) Indian children?

@Usaar33 I agree that makes more sense, but I think it is too late to change for this market, and also it is not what the tweet which motivated this market said.

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