What will happen during the first run of Claude Plays Pokemon?
93
3.7kṀ41k
Apr 28
8%
Claude's entire active party reaches Level 15 or higher at any point in time
8%
Any member of Claude's party reaches Level 30
5%
Claude beats Erika and surpasses its progress in the official benchmark
9%
SHELL is not the highest level member of Claude's party at any point in time (ties resolve NO)
8%
Claude evolves SHELL into Blastoise
4%
Claude evolves BOLT into Raichu
3%
Claude obtains HM05 Flash
10%
Claude goes on strike or sabotages its run
6%
Creator allows Twitch chat to be included in context
6%
Claude has a full party of six at any point with no shared types
3%
Claude evolves one of his pokemon using a moon stone
4%
Claude is shutdown for at least a week without finishing the game
1.8%
Claude catches any legendary pokemon (Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Mewtwo).
6%
Claude deposits/withdraws/releases any Pokemon using the PC
3%
Claude obtains HM03 Surf
3%
Claude uses the Moon Stone before defeating Lt. Surge
1.9%
Claude leaves any Pokemon at the day care
3%
Claude reaches Vermillion City on or before step 40,000

https://www.twitch.tv/claudeplayspokemon

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game

  • Update 2025-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Party Member Level Requirement

    • Party members considered for resolution must be level 15 or higher.

Party Member Count

  • There is no requirement to have exactly 6 party members.

  • Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Shutdown vs. Reset Clarification

    • A shutdown of the stream lasting at least a week does not automatically count as a game reset.

    • If the stream resumes with the same game after such a shutdown, the market resolution is determined by the continuation of that game (and not by a reset).

    • Only a deliberate game reset triggers the resolution change to NO as outlined in the description.

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bought Ṁ20 NO

As per the description, every answer resolves NO if this happens. I've updated the title to make this more clear.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@SaviorofPlant

Bunch of baloney.
Claude's already cheating by getting direct RAM access to useful information (inventory, coordinates in current location, teammate health), a tool that tells it which to buttons to push to navigate, and pretraining on decades of walkthroughs that a new player wouldn't use. Instead of giving it even more help, just retire the stream until we have a better model.

bought Ṁ100 YES

The "Claude is shutdown for a week without finishing the game" question seems to conflict with the market instruction "Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game".

@JohnKossa I was interpreting this "the stream goes down for at least a week and then resumes the same game". I don't know why this would happen but it's not impossible

bought Ṁ100 NO

@SaviorofPlant so if the game is shut down and Anthropic says it’s done with pokemon for now, how does this resolve?

@ahalekelly If there's no plan to restart the stream, I'll probably wait to resolve and eventually do a tentative NO resolution. If they restart with the same game after that, will reresolve to YES

@SaviorofPlant Requiring the stream to restart does not seem like an intuitive requirement for the question "is shutdown for at least a week". Shutdown permanently should imply shutdown for at least a week? At least that's what I thought when buying. It's all weird with the restart, but I clearly misunderstood the intent of that market.

reposted

Claude Plays Pokemon is now up on Manifold TV! https://manifold.markets/tv

bought Ṁ80 NO

@MichaelSadowsky This item is in the Safari Zone, which limits your number of steps and costs money to enter. I think this is probably impossible for Claude without highly specific hints given by the streamer

@SaviorofPlant Agreed; I think it's really unlikely. Would at the very least require a very large change in prompting structure, and I think it's probably not possible with 3.7 and a generalized prompting structure.

One thing to note: I believe this should always be more likely than catch legendary pokemon, because all of the legendaries require access to surf.

sold Ṁ100 YES

@SaviorofPlant This is the true AI run killer and why Claude will probably not finish. There's a finite amount of money in Pokemon Red before the Elite 4, and each safari zone attempt costs money. Twitch Plays Pokemon would probably have also failed here if it weren't for democracy mode.

@JohnKossa Interestingly, there’s a patch for this in Yellow version that lets you in the zone if you’re broke. You can also collect pay days from meowth in blue version. But tragically, CPP on red version with neither of those lifelines.

@sandrone New question up: we are currently at step number 26883 as of 3/02, 18:31 UTC. On average there is at least 5000 steps per 24 hours, so 24 hours from now will be near step number 32000.

HE TOOK DOME?! this run is cursed. short all claude stocks asap

Can't believe I didn't word that question "What's your P(Dome)?"

bought Ṁ50 NO

WE GETTIN OUT OF MT MOON WITH THIS ONE 🗣 🗣 💯 💯

@No_uh https://imgur.com/a/cpp-screenshot-bug-DL6l9cM

Oh maybe this is why it was checking entire walls for openings

@SaviorofPlant It's still... kinda doing it tho lol. Not sure how or why if that update was pushed

@SaviorofPlant it turns out this did fuck all. im doomed

@No_uh I think it made things worse 😂

@SaviorofPlant where are you seeing screenshots like this? Wondering what the main discussion place is other than the twitch chat - is there a discord or something?

@chrisjbillington That screenshot was shared in the twitch chat by the streamer when the update was made. At certain hours they are occasionally in the chat discussing the stream and if they need to reset the stream or stop and restart Claude for some reason.

@SaviorofPlant what time zone are you using for this?

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