How will Manifold die?
50
1.2kαΉ€2317
3069
22%
Manifold is eternal
12%
Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down.
12%
Other
10%
Ship-of-Theseus'd into a new website
9%
They go bankrupt
9%
Bought by a large corporation & monetized to death
5%
As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)
4%
Outcompeted in the online marketplace
4%
People lose interest in it and stop using the site
3%
Once big enough to be noticed, regulators either shut them down or hobble them into irrelevance
2%
Heat death
2%
Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable
1.9%
Erotic auto-asphyxiation
1.2%
A lover's quarrel
1%
Shut down by the U.S. federal government
1%
Founders shut down Manifold due to community drama

this market never resolves 😀

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What do you mean by "this market never resolves 😀"

does this mean that none of the options will ever resolve?

@jakgnfdaghfjkahg this is the reasonable version of "heat death" and "manifold is eternal" it ought to be higher than either of those

@digory nah its eternal

bought αΉ€1 YES

Backward induction indicates mana is probably worthless if manifold dies so happy to bet against manifold dying using mana

Why is "As a consequence of a global catastrophe (nuclear war, hostile AI takeover, etc.)" at 0.8% when AI doom by 2030 is still at 10%?

@DavidBolin Because in this market, the plausible short-term gains to AI self-sufficiency aren't being inflated by borderline-magical amounts.

@DavidBolin because the AIs might keep Manifold around

bought αΉ€1 YES

@DavidBolin Because literally impossible to bet it up :(

opened a αΉ€2 NO at 1.0% order

@TheAllMemeingEye Appears to be possible, now. But this is the glitchiest low liquidity I've ever seen. πŸ˜…

sold αΉ€0 YES

@4fa yeah lol somehow 1 mana bets are swinging stuff by double digits

bought αΉ€1 YES

@TheAllMemeingEye Enjoy some free mana

I feel like "regulators either A OR B" should be two separate answer choices

@ShadowyZephyr For my answer, I figured either having most of the value ruined by regulatory demands, or being outright shut down, would be thematically similar-enough to make a "bucket". But it could be interesting to have them as different answers.

Great market idea. The general concept of using markets to predict bad futures to avoid them deserves its own term: maybe "via negativa futarchy" or "malfutarchy".

@SG malarchy

Data and code is open right? If it's going to fire I'll scrape it and run it myself. Dev would be slow but running it with no/slow development should be fairly cheap right?

we still got like 2 years of runway so no need to worry. I personally think clones would be cool. probably will be easier once we move off firebase (which I'm tackling rn)

@StrayClimb The chance of Manifold truly dying is actually extremely low. Even in the worst case where Manifold no longer seems like a viable business prospect, we cease active development, put the site in maintenance/low cost mode, and subsist off of user and EA donations. I personally will ensure that it lives on.

And, of course, the best case still is within reach... /SG/will-manifold-ipo-by-2030

That is not dead which can eternal lie, and with strange aeons even death may die.

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