
Will California SB 1047 pass? | What will the highest Chatbot Arena elo of an open source model be at the start of 2026?
6
2.1kṀ17kDec 31
1.8%
Yes | 1200 - 1300
1.8%
Yes | 1300 - 1400
1.8%
Yes | 1400 - 1500
0.8%
No | 1200 - 1300
7%
No | 1300 - 1400
72%
No | 1400 - 1500
2%
Chatbot Arena will no longer exist
6%
No | 1500 - 1600
7%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
73% chance
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
87% chance
What will be the highest ELO on Chatbot Arena on Jan 1, 2025?
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
38% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?
45% chance
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
54% chance