I will not bet in this market to avoid incentives for dishonest resolution (with the exception of buying and immediately selling shares in options others add so they get the trader bonus).
I will attempt to give updates in the comments on life developments that significantly affect the odds for any option, within the limits of not doxxing myself or others.
Relevant context:
I am a mid-twenties straight cisgender male living in the UK.
My career is currently in scientific research.
I think I look ok but I also gather that in general people perceive me as a loner weirdo.
I am perhaps irrationally paranoid that attempting to pursue one night stands / hook-ups with total strangers I've built zero trust with would lead to me being slandered, extorted, abused, abducted, or even murdered.
I have significant neurodivergence, most notably autism, OCD, and ADD.
I tried online dating for the first time for a few months last year, which led to 7 matches, 3 first dates, and eventually 1 relationship, which due to unfortunate life circumstances outside our control had to end almost immediately after becoming official, and the breakup harmed my morale at work enough that I haven't attempted dating again since then.
My friendship group consists of perhaps a half dozen distant friends, 2 close friends, and 2 close family members, is of roughly equal gender balance, and has low-to-moderate relationship success rate.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided more detail on their willingness to perform a specific act, noting they are strongly not into it. However, they might be willing under two specific circumstances:
In exchange for a vast amount of money (as sex work), covering the suffering and costs.
With a partner in an otherwise very good relationship if the partner strongly desired it and strict hygiene boundaries were followed.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the answer, 'Conditional on me having sex, my partner enjoys it':
This will resolve to YES if the partner enjoys it on at least one occasion in 2025. It does not need to be the first time, nor every time.
This will resolve to N/A if the creator does not have sex in 2025.
1,000@skibidist ~175 cm = ~69 inches = ~5 foot 9 inches, slightly below UK average male height, but still way more than UK average female height
@Quroe thanks for sharing :)
Significant chance much of it will be familiar territory, but as you say even one significant extra piece of info could make a big positive difference
@TheAllMemeingEye They just released one on kinks yesterday. The statistics in that video surprised me.
Relevant affecting factors:
I think I have a decent level of theoretical knowledge from many years reading posts on r/sex, r/askredditafterdark, OJST webcomic, relevant Wikipedia articles, and conversations with friends/family, though I could still have misconceptions and not realise it
I unfortunately have zero practical experience so far
I do have significant desire to achieve this
@TheAllMemeingEye also I should clarify that this option is asking about if it happens at least once in any of the instances this year, not necessarily the first, nor every time, and resolves n/a if no sex occurs
@snazzlePop relevant affecting factors:
I am strongly not into giving or receiving this act
I might be willing to do it in exchange for a vast amount of money (covering the time/effort for organisation/act, the intense suffering endured, and the long term social/romantic/financial costs of ruining my reputation by engaging in sex work)
I might be willing to do it with a partner that really wanted to do it if the rest of the relationship was otherwise really good and some strict boundaries to improve hygiene were followed
@skibidist relevant affecting factors:
Afaik these events mostly happen in the SF Bay Area in the US, and travelling to there from the UK is both really expensive and potentially dangerous (due to overzealous border security, trigger happy police, and widespread criminal/political gun violence)
I fear that taking part in such an event may permanently ruin my reputation in a way that prevents future relationships, similar to hiring a sex worker, or those guys who participated in the huge gangbangs with Lilly Phillips and Bonnie Blue
My tastes are strongly vanilla (aka "tendersexual" using the terminology of Aella's latest post), and everything I've read from Aella indicates she and her immediate circle are very strongly kinky (aka "bdsmexual"), including stuff as extreme as CNC that I find incredibly distasteful
In normal circumstances, I don't think I would build up enough trust to go all the way with someone without having gone through the intermediate stages of intimacy over multiple prior dates, though the presence of numerous bystanders who can protect me / testify in my favour if someone tries to do something bad might help alleviate this
I do frequently read Aella's work, including the post about the previous gangbang, and find it very witty, fascinating, and informative
and widespread criminal/political gun violence)
@TheAllMemeingEye Not to mention plain celebratory gunfire
@skibidist yeah this is basically how I imagine typical American gun safety
@TheAllMemeingEye nvm, maybe not, I see you were going for consistency between options. I like consistency.
@skibidist XD
with the exception of buying and immediately selling shares in options others add so they get the trader bonus
To clarify, this means I manage to control the urge to resume dating until the point where I would rationally agree it is wise for me to do so i.e. probably in a few months after I have effective ADHD medication and am no longer buried under difficult work deadlines, such that I have enough consistent free time that I could actually maintain a healthy relationship.
Inspired by the fact that in the past month or so I keep finding myself impulsively flirting with people I'm low-key into and half-jokingly asking friends to set me up with people they know, even though logically I really should wait until I'm actually in the right situation.
@TheAllMemeingEye I had a date in 2023 on which we skipped the kissing part because we both had a bit of a cold. So, had I made this kind of market in 2023, it would have resolved in this unusual way. ๐ More than one date, actually, I guess she just wasn't into kissing that much.
@4fa fair enough, I hadn't considered this possibility haha, though personally I don't think I would build up enough trust to go all the way without having gone through the intermediate stages of intimacy over multiple prior dates
@TheAllMemeingEye Makes sense! It was indeed an unusual situation, but a nice one, with lots of mutual trust to begin with, due to having close friends in common.
@TheAllMemeingEye Market has no liquidity, I accidentally bet 10 mana and moved it by 40%
@ProjectVictory this is why Manifold would be better if they used straightforward proportional shares instead of this wacky maniswap amm system, liquidity should increase with trading volume, otherwise you get cases like this where the liquidity is stuck low and seemingly can't be raised lol
It's possible that if you have a significantly different credence than other actively engaging users like @4fa then you might be able to bet against their limit orders for reasonable liquidity
@ProjectVictory ok I just figured out that there's a hidden menu that shows all the current option liquidities and lets me add more, turns out several of the earlier added options only had 10 rather than 25 like the newer ones, so I've added 100 to help balance it out
I am once again asking why sex is somehow more likely than a date or kiss
b/c manifest orgy probably
@jcb good point haha, though there is a significant chance I won't be able to go to manifest and according to the market a high likelihood that the orgy won't happen