This market resolves YES if the government of Iran (through a public announcement by Parliament, Supreme National Security Council, or President) issues a formal, official decision to close or block the Strait of Hormuz for international shipping on or before August 31, 2025.
YES conditions:
A formal decision must be made by an official Iranian body.
Must be publicly released (e.g., official website, state media, legitimate social media).
A clear statement like: *“the Strait of Hormuz will be closed/blocked.”*
NO conditions:
Only threats, media reports, or speculation—no formal decision.
No closure occurs before
the deadline.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to YES immediately upon a formal, official announcement of a decision to close the Strait.
This applies even if the announced closure is for a future date.
Resolution is based on the official decision itself, not on waiting for physical enforcement.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a parliamentary vote alone is not sufficient to resolve this market to YES.
The triggering event must be a formal, executive-level decision and declaration from one of the following bodies:
The Supreme National Security Council
The President
1,000@JohnofCharleston Good question
the market is defined so that a formal, official announcement of intent to close the Strait qualifies as YES, even if the actual closure happens later. No need to wait for physical action. Once it’s a decision by an authorized Iranian body, that’s sufficient.
It's all about the legislative decision. Executive decisions could be part of a following bet.
@The_HarpoongSI0N Iran's parliament already authorized closing the straight. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/23/irans-parliament-approves-blocking-strait-of-hormuz.html
My understanding at this point is that the next step would be an executive announcement closing the straight as of some date. Which itself would probably just be a negotiating position that they would not try to enforce once the implementation date came around.
What specific action are you trying to forecast here that hasn't already happened?
@JohnofCharleston Great question – to clarify: we take the formal, documented decision itself as the trigger. So once Iran’s authorized body publicly declares that they will close the Strait, EVEN if enforcement is set for a later date, the market resolves to YES immediately. We don’t wait to see if they carry it out—what matters is the written decision.
@JohnofCharleston Excellent observation. You're absolutely right the parliamentary vote (23 June) cleared the way, but did not itself constitute the formal executive decision we’re forecasting.
We're specifically tracking the official declaration by the Supreme National Security Council or President, stating that 'the Strait of Hormuz will be closed/blockaded' regardless of timing.
That declaration, even if framed as a negotiation or deterrent, counts as YES immediately.
We’re not forecasting the deployment of mines or ships just that documented executive-level decision.