Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?

1.4kṀ17k

2026

45%

Bayesian (https://manifold.markets/Bayesian)

31%

nikki (https://manifold.markets/nikki)

12%

jim (https://manifold.markets/jim)

Primer (https://manifold.markets/Primer)

Timothy Johnson (https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16)

Resolves to the user among those listed with the highest total spot score.

This market will never resolve to Other, but I've included that option just so I can add additional people.

If you'd like to participate, leave a comment asking me to add you by the end of February. After that point, the list of contestants for this market will be closed.

Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution metric is updated to use the spot score.
- The tournament page summary indicates that the ranking will be based on the spot score.
- This update supersedes the original reference to the overall peer score for determining the winner.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ162 NO

shorting @jim is ez money

@dlin007 😭

opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 30% order

@jim more?

The list of competitors is now locked, and the first question for the contest resolved.

I didn't do that well, but I guess no one else did either, so at least my peer score so far is positive.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31348/us-government-releases-additional-epstein-documents-in-2025/

Oh, actually, the semaglutide question also resolved, and I missed on that one pretty badly. I don't think I'm winning this...

I predicted 30% on the epstein question that resolved YES, and 73% on the semaglutide question that resolved YES

what about you @jim

@Bayesian 39% and 78%

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm not totally sure, but I think the relevant figure is the spot score

@jim well the relevant figure is spot peer score but I'm not sure if that's the same as spot score. Peer score itself is time-weighted rather than just based on the situation as of the community prediction reveal so isn't right.

@jim Thanks, the tournament page has a summary, and it seems to be using the spot score. This is what I have so far:
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/

@TimothyJohnson5c16 oh awesome. This is fun. I just wishing I hadn't put Elon at 20% to be richest.

@jim just to come clean I think that Elon 20% is my best prediction.

@jim I'm at 65%, happy with it

@TimothyJohnson5c16 will entry to this competition close at some point?

@jim Good question, I generally make these things up as I go.

But I was thinking of locking the list of competitors somewhat soon, maybe at the end of this month. What do you think?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 sounds good to me

@benshindel u might as well enter this

add me

These are the top three questions where I diverged the most:

If I had understood the scoring rule beforehand, I would have skipped the AfD question. I picked 50% just because I was very uncertain, and I did very little research.

I'd like to participate

@Bayesian Done!

filled a Ṁ5 NO at 10% order

I'd like to participate.

Please add me.

Is Brier score the right thing to use? The competition is decided by sum of peer score. But I have no idea if that's equivalent or not.

@jim Hmm, I've never used Metaculus, so let me check on that.

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 45% order

I'll just change this to "score" for now - my intention was to use the same score that Metaculus uses.

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