Will a female runner run a mile in under 4 minutes by the end of 2030?
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17%
Yes, in an official race
37%
Yes, but only in a controlled experiment
47%
No
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2025-02-female-runner-minute-mile-barrier.html
A recent study claimed that with optimal pacing, Faith Kipyegon could have broken 4 minutes. (Her actual time was 4 minutes, 7.64 seconds.)
Some races have pacers and wavelights to help runners break world records. That still counts as an official race.
"A controlled experiment" is meant to include conditions like what Eliud Kipchoge used to run a marathon in under two hours, which did not qualify as an official record.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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