Will the US withdraw from NATO at anytime during Trump's presidency?
46
100แน€3533
2029
30%
chance

Will resolve YES if the US Government formally withdraws from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) while Donald J. Trump is acting US President.

Resolution will NOT be dependent on A 2/3 Senate super majority or act of Congress if Trump unilaterally withdraws and the Federal courts do not declare such withdrawal unlawful.

  • Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Notice of Denunciation Clarification:

    • Sufficient Action: The market will resolve YES if the US sends a formal notice of denunciation to NATO.

    • Waiting Period Irrelevant: The one-year waiting period between the notice and actual withdrawal is not required for a YES outcome.

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By "formally withdraws", do you also mean the one-year waiting period between the notification and the actual withdrawal?

@BrunoParga - will resolve YES if US sends notice of denunciation even if one year waiting period hasn't passed

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