Linked to this Kalshi question:
If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.
Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.
1,000IRS is drafting plans to cut 45000 out of 90000 employees
@NicoDelon With expedition, the appeals court and US gov't could shorten deadlines a lot—briefs might be due within weeks, and oral arguments could be scheduled within 1 to 3 months of filing.
@NicoDelon dude this is the comment section of an Adult space, xan we keep the grade school playground talk to a nothing or I'm gonna have to go peeon musk on u and call u a retard.
The most offensive and juvenile and politically incorrect things to say.
Now do u understand.
Kalshi betters now predict 360k cuts for 2025.
Kalshi - the 250k or over cuts is at 69% and will go to 87% like the more than 100k is now. When the 360k estimate goes to 510k. Same margin of estimation over 250k as it is over 100k. the 500k or over at 26%. will go to 69% when the estimate of cuts is at 610k.
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-count
Lutnick - USPS workers will also replace 20,000 Social Security workers. "We spend $40 billion every 10 years doing the census. And that means we hire 625,000 people. And they go, and they rent cars and gas, and you pay them food... They go to every household and count the people." "What department do we already have that already employs 625,000 people? It's got cars, already has gas, and goes to every household. [Answer: USPS]." "They can go to your house when you have a baby and give you the form for Social Security. And the 20,000 Social Security officers that we have, we just don't need them. We actually can do real customer service."
Sample size of 1, but I just put in my 2 weeks notice for a 70k position at the DoD for a 200k position in the private sector (at a semiconductor startup) 😁
Announcement by Trump that Lee
Zeldin plans to cut 65% of EPA. This would be 10k of 15k staff.
Kalshi was forecasting 312k cuts before. Should head up to 320k. As the expectation nears 500k. Then this question should go to 90%. 400k should mean 75-80-%
The two idiots in the white house thought they could pull this off and it was looking pretty bad
But then the the people started to protest and they lied on court papers and then admitted there lie on interview on fox, then Donald Dump blamed the war on Ukraine and there president was a dictator, but not puttin .so first they where throwing shit at the fan and see what stuck, but like true idiots they started passing into the wind.
"there is no cure for stupid"
Everything Dump touches turns to shit.
Peeon, is a drug addict. Who's business are failing and he's to high to notice.
Kash Patel orders FBI transfer of 1,500 agents and staff from the bureau’s Washington, D.C., headquarters to field offices across the country.
Roughly 1,000 will be sent to high-crime cities that the Trump administration designated, where they can focus on fighting crime instead of political games. Another 500 will be reassigned to Huntsville, Ala., which is widely seen as D.C.’s version of exile.
This is just start of entire or parts of agencies order to move.
USPS to merge under Commerce Department oversight, Howard Lutnick in charge.
Streamline operations, automation . Likely at least no new hires as 30,000 per year get retirement. Likely will prep it for privatization. Privatizing means getting pieces more efficient and profitable before selling. Remove the everyone must be served no matter what mandate. Some parts ready for spin out earlier. Maybe this year
relevant: "Consistent with President Trump's instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation." -- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1893386883444437415
Hegseth announces 5400 pentagon staff will be fired soon. Trump replacing head of joint chiefs and too admiral and many other top generals etc… there are 800000 civilian staff in the military. Hegseth has ordered 8% cuts each year for 5 years. This refers to budgets but if it also roughly corresponds to civilian staff cuts and it in general does mathematically. This works out to about 64000 staff cuts in 2025 for support and supply chain and maintenance and administration.