SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
29
1káš17062026
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Seemingly already happened for image and video, but not sure if they will count it if they're later overtaken by the US again đ¤
Image Arena Leaderboard - a Hugging Face Space by ArtificialAnalysis
Related questions
Related questions
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2025?
17% chance
Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
20% chance
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
19% chance
Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will xAI rank above OpenAI at EOY?
21% chance
Best Lab on SWE-Bench Verified EOY 2025
Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?
90% chance
What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2030?
Which countries will have a top 3 AI lab at EOY2027?