By the end of 2024, will at least one >100 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
18
1kṀ1007resolved Mar 5
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Revealed - it was not known prior to the post getting famous, by most readers of the post, that it was written by an AI. They may have suspected so, but it was not told to them.
Only posts put on LW after the start of this market contract will be eligible candidates
(counts even if it was cherry-picked)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ93 | |
| 2 | Ṁ53 | |
| 3 | Ṁ24 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
Sort by:
@mods seems to resolve NO, no evidence posted, banned creator. In the comments for the 'weaker version' linked in these comments Bayesian has indicated he couldn't find anything
https://www.lesswrong.com/allPosts?sortedBy=top&timeframe=allTime to get an estimate for how many upvotes are common on LW
Related questions
Related questions
By the end of 2024, will at least one >50 karma LW post be revealed to have been mostly written by AI?
24% chance
Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?
68% chance
Will "AIs Will Increasingly Attempt Shenanigans" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
11% chance
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
67% chance
Will "2023 in AI predictions" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
13% chance
Will "A breakdown of AI capability levels focused o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "Near-mode thinking on AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
12% chance
Will a widely read online blogger/author/opinion writer turns out to be an AI before 2030?
53% chance
Will "OpenAI o1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
8% chance
Will "Shallow review of technical AI safety, 2024" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
24% chance