Since others can add in their predictions, I will use a combination of their opinion about resolution and my subjective judgement to resolve the predictions. I will not trade (other than to make token predictions with Ṁ1 ).
For resolution of predictions: Resolves YES to those that are more or less correct (in spirit) or to 50% (if technically true but not in spirit) or to NO (if not true). N/A if irrelevant.
If GPT-5 is not launched this decade, market's state will be resolved to N/A. You can trade on whether or not that happens here:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,254 | |
| 2 | Ṁ986 | |
| 3 | Ṁ332 | |
| 4 | Ṁ260 | |
| 5 | Ṁ187 |
@traders I resolved them according to my knowledge, feel free to give counterexamples as a reply if you disagree and I may unresolve.
@ian I'm not sure if it's reasonable to resolve GPT-5's image output modality to "yes" considering it's being served by a different model entirely, specifically one derived from 4o. If we look at it this way, every model available through ChatGPT has been able to output images for over a year. But if anything, this is a feature of ChatGPT (the web app with all sorts of routers and tool call scaffolding under the hood) and not the models in question. I feel like the spirit of the question was about the capabilities of the model itself and not the web app serving it.
@brubsby Not a GPT-5 capability, unfortunately. Image generation requests in ChatGPT tool calls to gpt-image-1 powered by 4o, voice input/output and video input are handled entirely by the realtime API also powered by 4o. GPT-5 only has text as its output modality.
https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5
Should resolve
pricing: cheaper than GPT 4 (1.25/10 vs 30/60)
context length: 400k
audio: none
Image: input only
I guess the only counter argument is if the original market intended for GPT-4.5 to be GPT-5 but the market was created in 2023, so not really possible.
@Shump or @firstuserhere how do you plan to resolve this if they don't speak much to the architecture?
@RobertCousineau I'm going to defer to the prediction's author (here @Shump ) by default for this market unless controversy ensues/author inactive/ doesnt clarify
etc
@RobertCousineau @firstuserhere I'd change the description to New Architecture Announced and resolve NO if they don't say anything. Can N/A on that but that just seems less interesting.
I wrote this months ago and honestly I now regret something so vague, but I'd define new as something substantially different than the current norm. So for example replacing tranformers is an obvious YES, while using Flashattention, which is just a different implementation is NO. I am still here so I can rule on it if needed.
@Shump Wdym less interesting? Isn't N/A the standard of doing things in such cases? If there was a different market on whether they'll disclose details about their new models, I'd bet no.
@jack No. Audio/video modalities can be input or output. But GPT-4 already has image input, so it would be nothing new if GPT-5 also does image input.
Video is also a different thing from "ability to take multiple images as input".