How will this be resolved if the US AISI is renamed and/or their work is moved over to a different federal organization?

@ahalekelly This question appears to be much more pertinent; thoughts?

The AISI has been gutted/ceased to exist; it has been replaced by the Center for AI Standards and Innovation. The leadership (at least) of the AISI has been removed, and the (former) AISI director now works at Anthropic.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/elizabeth-kelly-dc/

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaidirector/ai-director-leaving

Trump is requesting 325,000,000 less this year for NIST as well (page 25) https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2026-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2026-BUD.pdf

Scale AI Partnering with the U.S. AI Safety Institute to Evaluate AI Models

@DavidJames thanks for asking. Trying to decide if it was Trump’s doing could be contentious, so I will change the question to “If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?”

(Current question is “If elected, will Trump shut down the US AI Safety Institute in 2025?”)

If congress passes a budget in 2025 with zero funding for a future year, that would count as announcing a shutdown, but a presidential budget request wouldn’t count.

Resolution question: What if, say, Trump cuts future funding in late 2025 but the Institute has funding through the end of the year?

Does the resolution criteria care exactly who shuts it down? Does it matter by what mechanism it is shut down?

My intuition is this depends largely on what Trump's advisors would say. Would anyone like to share any stories or commentary on this?