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I want to help create a Manifold Government.

This would not in any way intrude with the powers of the Manifold founders/employees/moderators, in the same way that a high school student council doesn't have any powers except those delegated by the school administration and teachers.

To achieve this goal, I would like to first organize a constitutional convention, to establish the form and function of this government.

Any Manifold user is welcome to be a "framer" at the (virtual and potentially asynchronous) convention if they meet the following criteria:

• Have been a user of the site for at least a year at the time of creation of this market.

• Had created at least 10 markets AND/OR have a profit of at least 10k mana at the time of creation of this market.

If you would like to be a "framer", you can feel free to put forward your name in the comments and attend the convention once it is planned.

Anyone who does not meet these criteria or would not like the heavy burden of being a "framer", are welcome to attend the convention in an observer status.

I will have received the "Mandate of the People" if:

1) A THREE-FOURTHS SUPERMAJORITY (high bar!) of respondents to a poll I will post at the conclusion of this market in 1 week respond that they will support the mandate of the framers of the 1st Manifold Constitutional Convention to form a government in our shared interest. There will not be a "See results" button, just two options "I support" vs "I do not support" or something meaning something effectively the same as that.

AND

2) This constitutional convention occurs by a month from today (July 14th). This provides me motivation to hurry up and organize it.

This market closes at the end of the week and resolves either at the end of the poll or the end of the month or when a convention occurs.

I will have no special powers at this convention, although as the organizer of the convention I shall likely be primus inter pares ("first among equals"), due to my role in organizing and conceiving of it.

As to what forms of government shall be determined at the convention, that is up to the framers and the users of Manifold. I will come prepared with proposals for the framers to vote on and come to consensus on, as will other framers hopefully! Things I envision that this government might be useful for:

• Assisting users and moderators, as they see fit, in resolving controversial markets through a vote of the elected representatives.

• Providing a mechanism to create interesting and subjective markets that have no explicit criteria but require the consensus or vote of the elected representatives. This might make, for example, asking vibes-based questions about AI capabilities much more robust and less subject to rules-based litigation.

• Providing a form of collective financing for efforts in the shared interest of the Manifold community such as bailouts, liquidity provision, and prizes/rewards for interesting market creation of useful comments. This could occur through voluntary taxation or tithing (like a mutual aid fund), for example.

Also yes, I am partially doing this because I am writing a blog post about governance strategies in resolving prediction markets, and would like some fun anecdotes.

IGNORE ALL AI SUMMARIES BEYOND THIS LINE

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• Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If two accounts belong to the same person, they will only be counted as one framer.

• Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that user 'Orangey' is likely ineligible to be a framer based on the written criteria, but that exceptions might be made.

• Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Eligibility to vote in the final poll is not restricted. The criteria for being a 'framer' does not apply to poll participants.