Resolves YES if Machado serves in some leadership role in the Venezuelan government by the end of 2027.
I would count basically any role that indicates she is serving in a leadership position, even something like "Advisor to the President."
The "purpose" of this market is to roughly predict whether the government that succeeds Maduro would be another Madurist government or an opposition-led government.
I will not bet in this market to remain objective.
Also, context:
https://thebsdetector.substack.com/p/the-nobel-committee-is-hungry-for
1,000
@Dulaman hey, I’ve noticed you seem to be posting screenshots of LLMs on a lot of questions. Perhaps try to keep that to a minimum, or at least add your own meaningful commentary to this? I don’t want the comments section to turn into person after person posting LLM slop.
@ArtimisFowl @JulienWeeks @Gen @AlexanderTheGreater
I posted screenshots of gpt-5-pro answers to your questions in the past 24 hours, do you want me to stop?
@Dulaman I think it looks low-effort and personally wouldn't post screenshots because it wouldn't fit with standards I set for myself. But I don't care as a market owner.
@Dulaman (wrt to the comment on my market): I didn't mind it, mostly because it was the sole contribution to an otherwise no comment, low engagement market, but I would prefer if you posted a summary as a top-level comment which is more inviting for discussion instead of screenshots
in that instance, I actually read most of it and was going to reply, saying that it was pretty in line with the % I had assigned it mentally (and bet it to) but I didn't end up replying because it felt like replying to an AI lol. A bit of a non-starter in some ways, especially as you didn't take a position
@Gen more broadly I guess I would consider: do we want this on every market? - Probably not
It is useful to have some context but beyond stating facts the AI forecasts aren't that special. There have been a few AI-based trading strategies/bots and afaik none of them are remarkably successful
my subscription runs out tomorrow so was just finding things to point gpt-5-pro at ahaha
My sense is that there's some value in doing this for markets created by new users with low liquidity. Better than them just creating a question and getting 3 trades and nothing else?
(and I think gpt-5-pro "beats the market" on manifold for now)
@Gen if this became common would we also negatively impact blind users? I don't know if this is still an issue with all the capabilities to extract text from images these days
@AlexanderTheGreater Yeah, there's plenty of reasons why images are worse than text. In this case, it's probably so much text that it would dominate the comments if pasted as a block, so images are cleaner, in a way. Though, "is it too big and ugly if I paste this" is probably a good test for if it is valuable or if people are likely to read it.
@Dulaman I am unconvinced, but I welcome you to create a GPT bot, or trade as an agent of GPT-5 over time and let the results speak for themselves