Who will win the 2029 New York City Democratic mayoral primary?
26
200Ṁ1738
2029
89%
Zohran Mamdani
21%
Other
14%
No one
6%
Brad Lander
5%
Andrew Yang
3%
Andrew Cuomo
1%
Santa Claus
Resolved
N/A
Am I the creator?

Resolves to the candidate who wins the 2029 New York City Democratic mayoral primary. If no primary is held in 2029, resolves "No one."

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@HenryRodgers oops looks like I misread, should be fixed now?

@mods Should resolve N/A, can't have an "other" in an independent market.

@HenryRodgers Only the creator can add options, & that creator is banned so they won't be adding any more. Given that, I don't see any reason why "Other" can't function fine in an independent market—given the description, it covers all people not listed who win the primary in 2029 (while no one covers the case that it doesn't happen).

it's true that "Other" breaks bad if anyone adds options, but AFAIK there's no issue with this market currently (even if it should likely have been set up as dependent).

No one should be at < 1%.

bought Ṁ5 NO

Hmm, I added Other and it initialed at 50%. I think this market isn't properly in a format for only one choice can win.

Other should be at 20%+

Shouldn't this be a dependent market?

@UnspecifiedPerson Yes, but independent markets have much better trader bonuses right now, so I've been making all of my recent markets using that market type

So if Mamdani runs unopposed and there's no primary, it resolves to "No one"?

@HenryRodgers Yes, although, I do think it's an unlikely scenario. Four people were on the primary ballot running against De Blasio in 2017, and I doubt Mamdani will get through 2029 without at least one Democratic candidate running against him.

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