Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
5
100Ṁ230
2028
58%
chance

Source: FRED

Nov 4, 2028 as compared with Nov 4, 2024

Inflation adjusted

  • Update 2025-08-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will use a year-over-year comparison of the US trade deficit from FRED, rather than specific daily dates or fiscal-year totals.

    • Figures remain inflation adjusted as stated.

  • Update 2025-08-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Use FRED data; figures are inflation-adjusted.

    • Compare the U.S. trade deficit on Jan 1, 2025 vs Jan 1, 2029 (end-of-year endpoints).

    • Resolves YES if the Jan 1, 2029 value is at least 10% lower than the Jan 1, 2025 value.

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Since there’s no daily trade deficit numbers, what will u b comparing

1 Monthly Nov 2024 vs Jan 2029?

2 FY 24 vs FY 28?

3 …

@VNetChrome year over year for simplicity

In absolute terms?

@hrdwdmrbl can you clarify? What would the deficit need to be for this to resolve YES and measured over what period?

@DanielPeters we’ll use inflation adjusted terms. I think that’s more honest to the intent

@hrdwdmrbl what is the measure from Nov 24 that you’re baselining to?

@Tyler31 I updated the description: we’ll use end of the year for simplicity. Jan 1, 2025 vs Jan 1, 2029

@hrdwdmrbl what does that mean? Can you point to the number you will use?

@Tyler31 I’ll try to look it up

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