https://x.com/hausfath/status/1889371032898687234

The high January temperatures have increased the odds of 2025 being the warmest year on record from 6% at the start of the year to 30% after January. However, the declines in global temperatures we've seen in February to-date in reanalysis may temper this.

note that it's down further in reanalysis since this tweet/report https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

(edit: went back up since then)

@StevenK note also that Berkeley Earth's estimate was the highest/most uncertain out of four at the start of the year https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/january-sets-an-unexpected-temperature

(noting that I'd make a lot more mana off this if I pretended to have dumb culture war reasons for my predictions, and that this aspect of prediction markets makes me uncomfortable)

I assume you mean "2025 will be the hottest year so far", as in, compared to the years prior?