On November 30, 2025, Honduras will hold general elections in a single-round system where the candidate with the most votes becomes president. The race is dominated by Rixi Moncada (LIBRE), Salvador Nasralla (Liberal), and Nasry Asfura (National Party). Among them, Asfura is considered the most favorable toward Próspera ZEDE, being business-oriented and less confrontational about the zone’s existence compared to his rivals.
This market resolves to Yes if the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE) officially certifies Nasry "Tito" Asfura as the winner of the 2025 presidential election.
If the result is overturned by a recognized Honduran court within 30 days of certification, the court’s ruling will determine the outcome. If the election is annulled or unresolved without a certified winner, the market resolves No.
1,000Well, we'll see how this pans out. 8.8k in favor of Asfura now, 84.6% reporting https://x.com/Mario_H28/status/1996512990246433201
Allegedly live, stream of the vote counts from the "Liberal" party https://www.youtube.com/live/BjPw4BqeGUY
~80% tallied with Nasralla 15-19k ahead. Lean looks good but tight for the remaining areas. Polymarket betting on???? We'll see how it goes. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/centrist-nasralla-leads-tight-honduras-election-fraud-claims-linger-2025-12-03/
@MarySmith im not crazy confident...i just trust the other markets tbh....i will fill u at 52% though
@NotJeromeHPowell if you want to copytrade poly by betting with mary smith i strongly recommend doing it on this market that's a true arbhttps://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-nasry-asfura-win-the-2025-hond-hIhR6IE89u?r=QmF5ZXNpYW4
@AmmonLam where are you getting your info on this election? Last update had Nasralla at an 9k lead.....
@MarySmith this is from 12:05 AM today
big question is whether the incoming votes in late-counting rural areas are much more National-leaning than those that have been counted so far, which I believe was the case in 2017 and 2021
@SaviorofPlant Yo, nice find! I have a Honduran relative I'm trying to squeeze info from. Where did you get this?
@MarySmith came from here: https://x.com/Mariodiaz03/status/1996102088611213814/photo/1
bear in mind this is more than 14 hours out of date at this point
@Jack0 this is kinda scary, first time betting big against someone way ahead of me in rank 😨
@MarySmith dont worry, I know nothing about Honduras elections, didn’t know one was happening until a few days ago
@creator would you consider extending the market given that the counting is still very much ongoing?