@jim https://x.com/DiscussingFilm/status/1962478540210811313

@Ziddletwix du think i should resolve now or wait until it's confirmed beyond doubt (i.e. he appears in the trailer or something)

@jim I feel like wait, perhaps, bc often these things fall through

RESOLUTION CRITERIA Resolves YES if Gandalf makes a crossover appearance and he's black, Resolves NO if he makes an appearance and isn't black. Also resolves YES if we get a crossover episode featuring a Gandalf the Black to go along with Gandalf the Grey and Gandalf the White, even if he is not actually Black. Resolves N/A if no appearance by end of first season

@evan What the characters are shown watching a Rankin/Bass adaptation of LOTR/Hobbit, in which Gandalf is depicted as white? (Peter Jackson's adaptations would be anachronistic)

@GG Would resolve NO

@evan what if there is a character like a house elf or something named gandalf and he is black in coloration?

@BlackCrusade that seems like a lock for YES

@bens @evan what if there's a character called Gendolf or some other permutation which is pronounced similarly?

@evan I'm going to focus on manifesting this.

@evan in the books or the movies?

@noaht2 this is the case in The Cursed Child but not in the films

I wish we had a market on whether any of the actors will come out as trans in the next 25 years.

@BrunoParga you could make one?

@dgga tomorrow

@dgga it is tomorrow where I live (j/k, but almost)

I've created three options here: https://manifold.markets/TylerMurphy/what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry-CqQO9zp2nq#q50LnOUQl0pd

I made a market for the series as a whole https://manifold.markets/TylerMurphy/what-will-be-true-of-the-new-harry-CqQO9zp2nq

@evan How do we even quantify that? Like, what needs to happen for "yes" to win this?

@MikeFrenkel I'll watch it, if it seems woke resolves YES. Otherwise NO

In the book it's "Harry - you're a wizard"

The book makes it seem like he's not wearing a head covering and he doesn't meld with Voldy until later on

Omg please na @jim I didn't know it was 1000

@strutheo mandrake root

If we don't get to Hogwarts on the first episode how does the last 10minute question resolve?

@RicardoVieira Presumably would resolve NO

@Bandors Then it's True only i it happens in the last 10 minutes of episode 1, not before nor after