Anthropic seems way too high here, with Claude 3.7 currently in 20th place on the leaderboard, well over 100 points behind the leaders.

Similar market for arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/jim/will-a-company-other-than-openai-xa

@jim happy new year, this is a YES

Resolves to a single winner? Top 3? What are the criteria?

@ProjectVictory resolves to all that have a model at the top of the leaderboard at any point in 2025.

@jim But what is defined as "at the top"? Top 1? Top 2? Top 3? Top 5? Top 10? Top 100?

@komplexkonjugat Having the highest Elo score on the leaderboard.

@jim so it will only resolve to more than one company if two or more models from different companies have exactly the same Elo?

@komplexkonjugat

@komplexkonjugat It's at any point in 2025, so there could be multiple leaders at different times.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 that was the part I was missing, thanks.