On 23 October 1991, Clarence Thomas took the oaths of office to become a justice on the Supreme Court of the United States of America. If he remains in office until 20 May 2028, then he will break William O. Douglas's record court tenure of 36 years and 209 days.
Born on 23 June 1948, Justice Thomas will be 79 years, 10 months, and 27 days old on 20 May 2028.
Resolves YES if Clarence Thomas remains a sitting justice for at least 36 years and 210 days. If served consecutively, this will occur on 20 May 2028. If he retires, returns to the Supreme Court, and then breaks the record, I will eat my hat.
Resolves NO immediately upon his death if before 20 May 2028 (Eastern Time).
1,000Regarding the hat-eating criteria:
If you truly find that to be an important part of the criteria, that's fine, but I wonder if bettors would be happier to see the market resolve No if he were to resign. This type of clarification that is slightly at odds with the market title can be more satisfying than betting ONLY on the exact title as written.
@Eliza We should have another one of these for whether John Roberts will become the longest-tenured Chief Justice.