Based on prediction by user est on HackerNews: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44994403

Will be resolved to YES if

• restrictions are eased in a significant way such as unblocking foreign platforms

• Major technical dismantling such that bypassing censorship becomes substantially easier for ordinary users. Examples can include:

  • Removal or deactivation of large-scale filtering software.

  • Replacement of dynamic blocking systems with weaker or static rule sets.

It resolves to NO if censorship remains essentially intact, or if only temporary, localized, or minor changes occur (e.g., unblocking for events like the Olympics, “internet pilot zones,” small tweaks in filtering rules, or occasional glitches) (related: https://manifold.markets/TonyGao/will-any-tier1-city-in-china-have-a)