Will AfD get 21+% in 2029 German Federal Elections?
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51%
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The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is a far-right political party founded in 2013. In the 2025 German Federal Elections, the AfD achieved a significant breakthrough, securing 20.80% of the vote, more than doubling its previous vote share.
This market resolves to YES if the AfD party receives 21.0% or more of the total valid votes ("Zweitstimmen" or second votes) in the 2029 German Federal Elections.
The market resolves to NO if:
The AfD receives less than 21.0% of the vote
The AfD is banned or dissolved before the election
The AfD merges with another party and runs under a different name
The market will resolve based on the official final results as reported by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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