The German Council on Foreign Relations (German: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, DGAP) is a prominent Germany foreign policy research institute and they are concerned about a russian attack:
With its imperial ambitions, Russia represents the greatest and most urgent threat to NATO countries. Once intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine, the regime in Moscow may need as little as six to ten years to reconstitute its armed forces. -DGAP
While it isn't clear when "intensive fighting will have ended in Ukraine", let's try with roughly a 10 year period from now.
Resolves YES when Russia intentionally attacks a NATO member. Accidents like a misfired missiles are not sufficient. If it triggers NATO article 5 it is sufficient. Covert operations ("green men") are not sufficient unless NATO officially acknowledges it as a Russian attack.
Resolves NO in 2034.
1,000@Henry38hw Two main factors changed my mind recently:
For some reason, Trump almost never goes against Putin, and this trend is not changing over time
Trump on several occasions threatened retracting U.S. soldiers from Europe. If I was Putin, I would strongly suspect U.S. might not defend Baltic states in case of conflict.
There are reports from German generals and intelligence that Russia is preparing this.
Before, I thought Russia would not attack NATO because of the strength difference. Right now, I think that unless Putin dies, Russia will attack NATO with p>50% by 2034. I have some uncertainty to what degree it will be possible to publicly attribute to Russia. ("Unidentified green men".)
The current comunity prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?") is at 13% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8636/russia-nato-war-without-us/).
@HannesLynchburg Probably not. This is motivated by the idea that Russia "reconstitute its armed forces" but "green men" special ops is something they can to do anytime. The annexation of Crimea would not have resolved YES.
@marktwse Can you please edit the AI capsulation of your comment in the description, it appears to be somewhat incoherent, and possibly not what you want.
Stumbled over it via this (german) blog post which I do not consider trustworthy. Curious what others think.